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There is no more “survive and advance” left in the NASCAR playoffs.
The semifinal round (Round of Eight) is here. And that means the pressure is on to win or finish in the top five and earn stage points. There won’t be any backing into making the Championship 4 event.
Two drivers have already clinched a spot to vie for the championship, and that’s Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe. Hamlin thanks to his win Oct. 12 at Las Vegas and Briscoe thanks to his win Sunday at Talladega.
NASCAR’s playoffs are based on three-race rounds (every team still competes even if not a playoff team). If a driver who’s still alive in the playoffs wins in the round, that’s an automatic bid to the next round. The four winless drivers with the fewest points are eliminated after each round.
Drivers have earned playoff points with stage and race wins, as well as based on their regular-season finishes, which are added to their point total when the points are reset at the start of each round, which can help them advance.
At the championship race, the best finisher among the four finalists is crowned champion.
The 2025 playoff tracks:
Opening Round (Round of 16): Darlington (winner: Chase Briscoe), World Wide Technology Raceway (winner: Denny Hamlin) and Bristol (winner: Christopher Bell).
Quarterfinal Round (Round of 12): New Hampshire (winner: Ryan Blaney), Kansas (winner: Chase Elliott) and Charlotte road course (winner: non-playoff driver Shane van Gisbergen).
Semifinal Round (Round of Eight): Las Vegas (winner: Denny Hamlin), Talladega (winner: Chase Briscoe) and Martinsville (0.528-mile oval). Teams have raced at all three of these tracks this year.
Championship: Phoenix (1-mile oval). Teams last raced at Phoenix in March.
Here are my playoff rankings based on who has the best shot at winning the title with only eight drivers remaining in contention:
1. Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing: No. 11 Toyota
Position: Fourth, advanced with Vegas win
2025 playoff results: Darlington, Seventh; Gateway, First; Bristol, 31st; Loudon, 12th; Kansas, Second; Charlotte, 23rd; Las Vegas, First; Talladega, 24th
March 2025 Martinsville finish: First
Hamlin has advanced to the Championship Four thanks to his victory at Las Vegas. But Martinsville is one of his best tracks, with six career wins. So don’t count him out. Plus, by winning Martinsville, he would keep both Penske cars out of the mix at Phoenix, where they are typically strong. Also, having a little bit of momentum going into Phoenix wouldn’t be a bad thing, as he tries to earn his first Cup title.
Scenario: Hamlin has already advanced to Champ Four with his Las Vegas win.
Prediction: Championship Four
2. Kyle Larson
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 5 Chevrolet
Position: Third, +36 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 19th; Gateway, 12th; Bristol, 32nd; Loudon, Seventh; Kansas, Sixth; Charlotte, Second; Las Vegas, Second; Talladega, 26th
March 2025 Martinsville finish: Fifth
Larson has finishes of fifth and third in his last two Martinsville outings, so he should feel good with his cushion. But if someone outside the cutline wins and takes a spot, it will be a fight with his longtime sprint-car rival Bell, who was second in the spring at Martinsville. His best bet is to just go win Martinsville, which he has done once in his career.
Scenario: Larson clinches a spot if Byron, Elliott, Blaney and Logano do not win and he earns 21 points (16th with no stage points or no fastest-lap point). If one of those four drivers wins, he would need to gain a point or two on Bell.
Prediction: Championship Four
3. Christopher Bell
Joe Gibbs Racing: No. 20 Toyota
Position: Second, +37 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 29th; Gateway, Seventh; Bristol, First; Loudon, Sixth; Kansas, Third; Charlotte, Third; Las Vegas, Third; Talladega, Eighth
March 2025 Martinsville finish: Second
Bell was second at Martinsville in the spring, so if he can do one spot better, he’ll take care of any nerves he has about a driver outside the outline winning and then leaving for the final spot to be decided between him and Larson. Bell’s biggest challenge could be getting over the frustrating elimination race last year, where he ended up 22nd after a move that NASCAR considered illegal in riding the wall.
Scenario: Bell clinches a spot if Byron, Elliott, Blaney and Logano do not win and he earns 20 points (17th with no stage points or no fastest-lap point). If one of those four drivers wins, he would need to not lose a point or two to Larson.
Prediction: Championship Four
4. Chase Briscoe
Joe Gibbs Racing: No. 19 Toyota
Position: First, advanced with Talladega win
2025 playoff results: Darlington, First; Gateway, Second; Bristol, Ninth; Loudon, 10th; Kansas, Fourth; Charlotte, 14th; Las Vegas, Fourth; Talladega, First
March 2025 Martinsville finish: Ninth
Briscoe has no worries at Martinsville and just needs to focus on Phoenix, where he won in spring 2022. But that was only one of two top-five finishes at Phoenix, and he’ll certainly need to run at least in the top five in the championship race.
Scenario: Briscoe has clinched a spot in the Champ Four with his win at Talladega.
Prediction: Championship Four (change from eliminated in semifinal round)
5. Chase Elliott
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 9 Chevrolet
Position: Eighth, must win to advance
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 17th; Gateway, Third; Bristol, 38th; Loudon, Fifth; Kansas, First; Charlotte, Eighth; Las Vegas, 18th; Talladega, 40th
March 2025 Martinsville finish: Fourth
Elliott finished fourth and second in his last two visits to Martinsville, where he also has one win. He might have the best chance of the four drivers outside the cutline to pull off the victory. If he does do it, the Martinsville crowd would go crazy.
Scenario: Elliott must win at Martinsville to advance. He has no chance to advance on points.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round
6. Ryan Blaney
Team Penske: No. 12 Ford
Position: Seventh, -47 behind the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 18th; Gateway, Fourth; Bristol, Fourth; Loudon, First; Kansas, 24th; Charlotte, 13th; Las Vegas, 38th; Talladega, 23rd
March 2025 Martinsville finish: 11th
Maybe the racing gods just don’t want Blaney in the Champ Four this year as a tire blowout in Vegas and then getting shuffled out of the pack late at Talladega has put him in a huge hole. He has virtually no chance to make it on points. He’s won the last two Martinsville elimination races, so there’s hope. But the odds of winning that race three consecutive years? The odds aren’t with him.
Scenario: Blaney pretty much has to win Martinsville. If he doesn’t, he’d need to get 47-48 points on Larson or 48-49 points on Bell, as well as gain nine or 10 points on Logano. That would require both Larson and Bell to finish 30th or worse.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round
7. William Byron
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 24 Chevrolet
Position: Fifth, -36 behind the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 21st; Gateway, 11th; Bristol, 12th; Loudon, Third; Kansas, Ninth; Charlotte, 11th; Las Vegas, 36th; Talladega, 25th
March 2025 Martinsville finish: 22nd
Byron has two career wins at Martinsville, so there’s no doubt he knows what it would take to get it done. But he has finishes of 22nd and sixth in his last two Martinsville starts, and that sixth-place finish a year ago was with him battling an ill-handling car at the end. He’s going to need to find something he hasn’t had in his most recent trips to Martinsville.
Scenario: Byron pretty much has to win Martinsville. If he doesn’t, he’d need to get 36-37 points on Larson or 37-38 points on Bell.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (change from making Championship Four)
8. Joey Logano
Team Penske: No. 22 Ford
Position: Sixth, -38 behind the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 20th; Gateway, Fifth; Bristol, Fifth; Loudon, Fourth; Kansas, 21st; Charlotte, 20th; Las Vegas, Sixth; Talladega, 16th
March 2025 Martinsville finish: Eighth
Logano more than likely needs to win Martinsville, a place where he earned a dramatic victory on his way to the title in 2018. The problem for Logano could be being close enough to the lead to make a move for the win. While he has 11 career top fives at the track, he has an eighth and a 10th in his last two outings there. Maybe there is something to this trend of him winning championships in even years only.
Scenario: Logano pretty much has to win Martinsville. If he doesn’t, he’d need to get 38-39 points on Larson or 39-40 points on Bell, as well as gain a few points on Byron.
Prediction: Eliminated in the semifinal round
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
