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Lawmakers in both parties are hopeful that Tuesday’s elections will be the jolt needed for either Democrats or Republicans to shift their shutdown strategy.
The elections arrive as the pain of the shutdown intensifies across the country, but lawmakers in both parties acknowledge that no deal can be finalized until the contests are no longer hanging over their heads.
Some Democrats say a wide margin of victory could push Republicans to negotiate on their health care demands. Republicans, meanwhile, are largely blaming Democrats for looking to the elections as an inflection point, while also hoping a closer-than-expected results could convince Democrats that voters aren’t behind them and push them to vote “yes” on a stopgap spending bill.
“Nothing’s going to happen until after Tuesday. Everybody’s waiting. … That’ll be the catalyst of like, ‘Ok, what’s the next thing?’ And it’ll put people in a different place,” said a Democratic strategist who spoke anonymously to discuss a sensitive topic.
Both parties are eyeing gubernatorial elections in Virginia — home to 140,000 federal employees — and New Jersey, as well as the New York City mayoral election and a redistricting measure on the ballot in California. The overall results will shed light onto the mood of the electorate and provide some early insight into how the 2026 midterm elections will play out.
In Virginia, Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger is facing off against Republican Winsome Earle-Sears for governor. Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill is going against Trump-backed Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli in the New Jersey gubernatorial race. And Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani is running against former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa in the New York City mayoral election.
Early polling indicates that Democrats are favored to win the three races. The California measure backed by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom that, if approved, would allow for the adoption of new congressional district maps also appears to be on the path to passing.
Some Democratic lawmakers in Congress said a victory by a wider-than-expected margin could create more pressure among Republicans to cave to their demands by introducing President Trump into the shutdown mix.
“I think if there’s a data point where they do really badly on Tuesday’s elections, that may be another thing that makes them put pressure on Mike Johnson,” said Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.). “Again, Donald Trump’s probably the only one who can end this shutdown by, you know, giving Speaker Johnson a call and saying, ‘Hey, go negotiate.’ And…we know Donald Trump cares about the midterm elections. If they do really bad tomorrow, that might be the push that he needs.”
Rep. Laura Friedman (D-Calif.) said that if the California measure passes, she hopes Republicans will “read the room a little better and come back to town and take Democrats up on our invitation to have a real and substantive negotiation.”
Central to the shutdown fight have been Democratic demands to extend the Affordable Care Act subsidies, which are set to expire at the end of the year. Republicans have said they want to reopen the government first before discussing the subsidies, while Democrats have said they want negotiations on the subsidies to take place first.
Republican leaders also said they hoped Tuesday would serve as an impetus for a deal, even as they dismissed its importance.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said he hoped it would mark a “change” in Democrats’ shutdown strategy.
“Maybe after tomorrow, they’ll come to their common senses again and do the right thing. We certainly pray that is true,” Johnson said at the Monday press conference.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters that he is “optimistic” there could be a deal to reopen the government by the end of the week. The GOP leader pointed to Tuesday’s elections as a key hurdle to move past, but believes that a deal is possible afterwards.
“Seems like that matters,” Thune said. “I don’t know why it should.”
The Senate has failed 13 times to advance a short-term spending measure that passed the House last month and would fund the government at current levels through Nov. 21.
Lawmakers have discussed extending the stopgap bill to reopen the government past Nov. 21, as the deadline on the current spending measure approaches. Thune is considering a spending bill that would fund the government into January or later.
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) told The Hill that he thinks the current Republican spending measure is dead, but hopes that Democrats will “agree to reopen the government” soon.
“This is a very bad situation, so whatever it takes. If it’s an election, that’s the trigger – fine. I don’t care, but I want them to come to the table and agree to reopen the government,” Hawley said.
Mike Lillis and Al Weaver contributed.
