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Both Israel and Hamas have agreed to President Trump’s peace deal to end the two-year war in Gaza and release the remaining 48 hostages, including the bodies of two Americans.
But that’s just the first step of Trump’s 20-point plan to end the war and rebuild the Palestinian enclave. What comes next could be even harder, observers warn.
“There’s always concerns. I mean, this is a terrorist organization,” Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Sherren Haskel told The Post. “They didn’t just say yes to the Trump peace plan like Israel did, like all the Arab countries did, like the international community adopted that plan.”
“Right now, they have agreed on the first stage, which means the release of the hostages [in exchange for] convicted terrorists.”
The Israeli government ratified the agreement early Friday morning. Next, the sides must secure a full cease-fire and iron out the final details of the hostage exchange, which will likely take place Monday or Tuesday.
The ratified deal calls for an immediate cease-fire, the release of all the Israeli hostages at once, a staged withdrawal of the Israeli army from Gaza, the disarmament of Hamas, and the creation of a transitional government led by an international body.
“Unfortunately, we’ll need to release hundreds of convicted murderers, terrorists, [who] were convicted of some of the worst crimes you can imagine, including murdering innocent children and women and men,” Haskel said.
“Some of them have even participated in the seventh of October massacre, and this is very difficult in front of the families of the victims that were murdered, knowing that the monster who perpetrated this attack and killed their loved ones will be released back into society without any restriction.”
While both sides have agreed to the terms of the deal, there are several pitfalls that could sink the agreement and plunge Gaza back into war.
Complications are currently brewing regarding the hostage exchange and Hamas’ willingness to cede its arms and power.
“If you poll Israelis, they still don’t think it’s going to take place. I’ve seen that about 70% that are still skeptical — nobody trusts Hamas,” said Scott Feltman, Israeli security analyst and executive vice president of the One Israel Fund non-profit.
Still, if there’s one person who can make Hamas bend, it’s President Trump, he said.
“I think that Hamas is a little bit more spooked this time, because the president has been adamant that this deal must go through,” he said. “And I don’t think he’s playing games when he says if it doesn’t, that he will give Israel carte blanche and probably the weaponry as well to finish the job and finish Hamas.”
Cease-fire takes hold as IDF withdraws
Once the deal is ratified in the security cabinet, a cease-fire will immediately take place in Gaza, with the Israel Defense Forces given 24 hours to begin withdrawing its forces from the Palestinian enclave.
The Israeli military is expected to keep control of about 50% of Gaza under the first phase, setting the stage for the hostage exchange deal.
The deal also states that an immediate wave of aid would be allowed to enter the Gaza Strip, with the UN and humanitarian groups stating Thursday that they’re ready to provide whatever is necessary as soon as possible.
All the hostages go free
Hamas will have 72 hours to secure the release of all 48 hostages in Gaza, including 20 of whom are still believed to be alive.
Some contention lies on the bodies of the deceased. Hamas and Israeli officials reportedly don’t know where all the dead are located, as some of the hostages were kidnapped by other extremist groups during the Oct. 7, 2023, attack.
Turkish officials told Reuters that Israel, Hamas, the US and Arab nations would work together to help locate all the bodies.
It is unclear whose bodies are missing, but Israeli-Americans Itay Chen and Omer Neutra are listed among the dead.
There is some fear that Hamas’ claim that it doesn’t know the location of some of the murdered hostages “may end up being a future point of leverage when they say they’ve suddenly located them,” said Aviva Klompas, former head of speechwriting at the Israeli Mission to the US.
Palestinian prisoners to be released
In exchange for the hostages, Israel has agreed to free nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, including about 250 who are serving life sentences.
Israel has maintained that it would not free members of Hamas’ elite Nukhba military unit accused of taking part in the Oct. 7 massacre, nor would it free top officials, such as the popular Marwan Barghouti.
Hamas has made it clear that Barghouti, the former leader of the West Bank’s Fatah party who is serving five life sentences for the death of five civilians in 2002, is among the key prisoners they want freed.
“Hamas wants to walk away with something it can hold up as a victory – something they can point to tell their people that all this war and devastation achieved something,” said Klompas, who now serves as CEO of Boundless, a pro-Israel education group. “That’s why they’re fixated on freeing the most notorious terrorists responsible for murdering large numbers of Israelis.”
“It speaks volumes that their top priority isn’t rebuilding Gaza or helping Palestinian civilians, but securing the release of unrepentant killers,” she added.
The complete list of those set to be released has not been made public and could upend the peace deal if Hamas and Israel don’t reach a compromise.
Hamas to disarm and give up power
As the cease-fire takes hold and the hostages are freed, Hamas will have to submit to one of Trump and Israel’s top demands: the group give up its weapons and governance of Gaza.
That will likely be the most difficult step in the process, as the terror organization wants desperately to retain power, analysts say.
“After the hostages are released, I imagine there will be friction over the next phase of the president’s plan, which calls for disarming Hamas and installing new leadership,” Klompas said. “Those are steps Hamas fears and will resist.”
Trump and Israel have made it clear that the Gaza Strip cannot continue to operate with Hamas as its de facto ruler, nor can the Jewish state live in safety if the terror group maintains its weapons.
Hamas, however, has only agreed to partially disarm, with the group contending that it will only give up its weapons if a Palestinian state is secured, a term not laid out in the peace deal and one that Israel has repeatedly rejected.
“Everybody believes Hamas is going to do anything and everything in their power to stay in power, and this deal that the president and the prime minister worked out basically ensures that Hamas will not stay in power,” Feltman said.
“Hamas is going to pull every card and every string, and I believe they’re going to string this along.”
The terror group has also shown hesitance over allowing an international body to rule over Gaza during its reconstruction period, with the group maintaining Palestinians should helm the process.
Permanent peace and reconstruction
Should everything proceed as planned, the IDF would agree to a complete withdrawal from Gaza as international bodies rush in to provide aid and reconstruction to the decimated Palestinian enclave.
The board supervising the reconstruction will include Trump, Arab technocrats and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.
As opposed to previous proposals from Trump and Israel to forcefully evacuate the Strip, under the current deal, Palestinians will be allowed to stay if they choose and help in the reconstruction.
The deal also shuts down plans from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s allies to annex Gaza, while also calling on Palestinians to form leadership groups to push for permanent peace with Israel.
