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The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 10 slate.
Sunday
Falcons (+6.5) over COLTS
Sauce Gardner brings some juice, but not that much in Germany.
The Falcons are a solid matchup for Indianapolis, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry in their last three games, the 10th-best mark in the NFL.
It’s far from a dominant unit, but Atlanta has the horses to keep this game close on offense.
DeForest Buckner is out for the year, leading me to believe that Bijan Robinson may get the better of this running back matchup.
Browns -2 over JETS
My model favors the Jets here, but they just tore down major pieces of the roster so I’ll bail on them against Cleveland.
I suspect the offensive sides of the ball will be bad for both teams, given we expect it to be Justin Fields vs. Dillon Gabriel. But the Browns’ defense is a better unit than the Jets at this point (No. 6 in DVOA) compared to the Jets’ (No. 32 in DVOA before trades).
The Browns walk in and bully Gang Green.
BEARS -4.5 over Giants
My model really likes the Bears here, and I am in agreement with that sentiment.
My overall score came in at 29.55 to 22.38 in favor of Chicago. Neither defense is good; the Bears are allowing a league-worst 6.4 yards per play (YPP), while the Giants are sixth-worst at 5.9 YPP.
There is some improvement on the Chicago side that is worth backing Sunday.
Bills -9.5 over DOLPHINS
Buffalo is the best team in the NFL, while the Dolphins just sold off some significant pieces, including Jaelan Phillips, to the Eagles.
This should be the game where James Cook runs through Miami, which has allowed five yards per carry, the fifth-worst mark in the NFL. If you let the Bills run wild, they will go into cruise control and beat you.
PANTHERS -5.5 over Saints
Tyler Shough looked lost, and the Panthers are a team that I’ve been bullish on since Rico Dowdle took over the backfield.
My model is also happy to take Carolina on this game, posting a projected score of 25.54 to 17.59 in favor of the Panthers. A nice edge, the Panthers keep rolling after beating the Packers.
TEXANS +1 over Jaguars
This one is tricky because of no CJ Stroud. My model would have this spread at 24.16 to 13.82 in favor of Houston.
That’s a massive change, and while I think Davis Mills is a massive downgrade, 12 points is too many for me to bail on the Texans.
Oddsmakers initially had Stroud worth six points to the spread, per Yahoo Sports, so I think this is a bargain price on Houston even with Mills back there.
Ravens -4 over VIKINGS
Another spot where I think the Ravens are being undervalued. Lamar Jackson is back and those old stats of the Ravens getting crushed by the Texans are a thing of the past.
Jackson should be healthier than ever this week. My model has the Ravens favored by 10 here.
An obvious Baltimore spot and a sell high on the Vikings, who had a ton of flukey special teams plays carry them.
Patriots +2.5 over BUCS
Love Baker Mayfield, but I’ll take Drake Maye over almost every quarterback in the league right now.
Roster for roster, this is a close matchup, and my betting model shows no edge. But Hassan Reddick is out for Tampa Bay, and that’s a big loss.
New England wins a sneaky shootout.
Cardinals +6.5 over SEAHAWKS
Kyler Murray is being soft-benched for Jacoby Brissett, and that’s actually good news for Arizona. Like the Colts this season, they just need someone who can run the offense and do the basics.
The Cardinals’ defense is actually quite strong, rated No. 10 in DVOA and improving. My model has this spread at three points.
Rams -4.5 over 49ERS
Division matchups are tough as ever, but I’ll take the Rams to split their season series, even though it’s a road matchup.
Los Angeles gets Puka Nacua back, supposedly healthy, and while Christian McCaffrey is healthy, his rushing effectiveness has been below average (3.5 YPC, worst of career).
Matthew Stafford vs. Mac Jones? Give me the future Hall of Famer here; the Rams are Super Bowl contenders.
Lions -8 over COMMANDERS
Easy pass on Marcus Mariota this week. This spread could be 10, and I’d probably still take the Lions; my model has the Lions favored 30.04 to 19.86 in this game.
The spread of eight is a decent 1.96 percent edge. The Commanders’ defense is falling dramatically in DVOA each week, going from No. 17 last week to No. 22 this week.
Steelers +3 over CHARGERS
No way I’m taking the Chargers without Joe Alt as three point favorites. My model loves the Chargers in this spot, but this is a spot to look the other way.
Aaron Rodgers has played excellent this season and their defense is rapidly improving each week. The Steelers’ defense went from No. 22 in DVOA to No. 13 in DVOA. A massive move. Target Pittsburgh here since they are rolling.
MONDAY
PACKERS -2.5 over Eagles
This might be a tough matchup for the Eagles. Earlier in the week, I suspected that the Eagles would move closer to favorite status, but that has not happened, and I want to take the Packers in this game.
Green Bay lost Tucker Kraft but it looks mostly healthy elsewhere. The Packers have the best defensive line in the NFL as they look to stop the Eagles’ run game, which they are highly reliant on.
Last week: 8-5
Season: 60-64
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
