Premier League predictions and best bets: Mohammed Kudus to take centre stage on West Ham return, Jones Knows tips up 4/1 double | Football News

Our football betting expert and top tipster Jones Knows is back to preview all 10 Premier League games with a 4/1 double on his radar.

Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 12:30pm

You couldn’t get a more seismic shift in football philosophy from the pragmatism and safety of Nuno Espirito Santo to Ange Postecoglou’s front-foot philosophy.

It’s a wild appointment from Forest, one showered with risk.

There will be teething problems, especially at the heart of the defence.

Nuno’s centre-backs, often protected by a double pivot and narrow shape, were rarely exposed to isolation or high-line races. They weren’t expected to be part of the attack, they were there to clear, block and survive. It’s what made Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo such an imposing duo last season.

However, Postecoglou doesn’t just want control, he wants chaos. The press is high and aggressive. The defensive line creeps ever closer to halfway and centre-backs are no longer shielded – they become part of the plan in possession.

Milenkovic and Murillo are going to take time to adapt which means their prices to be carded offer great value while being caught out of possession is going to be extremely likely. Both are 3/1 with Sky Bet to pick up a booking.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

Bournemouth vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm

This should be full of goals.

Bournemouth press relentlessly, commit bodies forward in numbers, and play with almost a disregard for defensive structure that leaves their centre-backs asked to do lots of one-on-one work. It’s high-risk, high-reward football that leads to goals at both ends when the opposition can hurt them. Brighton are the perfect dance partner in that regard with their last 16 away games in all competitions averaging 3.88 goals per game.

The over 3.5 goals line is on offer at 13/8 with Sky Bet and that looks a price to take seriously.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2

Crystal Palace vs Sunderland, Saturday 3pm

Oliver Glasner is arguably one of the best pound-for-pound managers in world football and his skills are going to be tested over the next few weeks to keep Palace moving forward. Eberechi Eze has gone while Ismaila Sarr and Adam Wharton are both set to be out for this one.

One player who could take advantage of opportunities is Justin Devenny and if you’re digging around the player shots market this weekend, him to have a shot on target at 4/5 with Sky Bet rates as a juicy price. With injuries forcing Glasner to shuffle his pack, Devenny looks set to be handed a more attacking remit and he does love to shoot as outlined by his 2.65 shots per 90 data from his appearances for Palace so far.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Everton vs Aston Villa, Saturday 3pm

There was a time when backing goals in an Everton game felt like throwing cash into a firepit. In recent years with Sean Dyche at the helm the football has been functional, efficient and predictable.

They’ve been an under-goals gamblers dream.

How times have changed though. Everton are now opening up the game. And the arrival of Jack Grealish has added the kind of attacking intent and tempo that’s turning David Moyes’ team into a great watch. Backing goals in their games looks to be a sweet spot of value to attack as the markets are sleeping and holding too much emphasis on the Dyche days.

Over 2.5 goals here at Evens is one of the best punts of the weekend.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals (Evens with Sky Bet)

Fulham vs Leeds United, Saturday 3pm

Opposition centre-backs beware – there’s a foul drawing supremo playing as the Leeds centre-forward. And as bettors we must try and take advantage of this edge when assessing the player fouls markets.

Lukas Nmecha isn’t renowned as a regular goalscorer but what he does do well is the dirty work needed from a striker. He wins fouls, he’s good at the dark arts.

Across his last 50 appearances, he’s drawing 3.1 fouls per 90 and has drawn four fouls in his first two starts for Leeds. These types of markets rarely adjust foul lines for defenders based on the specific forward they’re facing, so there’s an angle to exploit here with Joachim Andersen’s price of 5/2 with Sky Bet to make two or more fouls standing out.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Newcastle United vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm

This stinks of a Newcastle to win to nil betting opportunity at 13/10 with Sky Bet.

Eddie Howe’s side may not get the plaudits they deserve for defensive organisation, but this is a team drilled to an elite level. Despite a tough fixture list of Aston Villa, Liverpool and Leeds, Newcastle have managed the best expected goals against process of any team this season, offering up just 1.58 worth of chances. They’ve also faced the fewest shots (18), showcasing just how strong they are as a unit.

Meanwhile, without Matheus Cunha injecting his quality and class, Wolves look like a team running out of ideas already in the final third. Boosting the raw Newcastle win price of 2/5 with Sky Bet by adding in the clean sheet looks a smart play.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

West Ham United vs Tottenham Hotspur, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports

The narrative of Mohammed Kudus returning to West Ham following his move to Tottenham for £55m adds lots of intrigue to an already spicy London derby. Kudus is the first player to join Spurs from West Ham since Scott Parker in 2011 and – as they should – Hammers fans have taken Kudus’ move very personally.

He’s in for a hot reception and strikes me as a character who will embrace the hostility.

This makes his price of 13/8 with Sky Bet to rack up five or more foul involvements very appealing.

Across his last 50 games in the Premier League playing for West Ham and Spurs, his per 90 foul involvement average is 3.75. And in his four appearances for Spurs already, he’s racked up 15 foul involvements.

If you just pull his foul involvement averages against the bigger clubs – in his last 15 appearances against teams that finished in the top 10 of the Premier League and PSG in the Super Cup final, the number comes in at 5.4 per 90. He can hit that average here.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Brentford vs Chelsea, Saturday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

If Chelsea are to challenge for the Premier League title this season, these are the meat-and-drink fixtures that require a no-thrills return of maximum points.

It’s something they are becoming very accustomed to doing, though, as Enzo Maresca’s side have won 16 of their last 19 games in all competitions. Chelsea are a very reliable team to trust. There’s a calmness and control about this team now.

They possess a machine-like quality, quietly getting results in matches they’re expected to win. That makes them a dangerous animal for Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City this season.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2

Burnley vs Liverpool, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

These newly-promoted teams at home are going to be bigger forces to be reckoned with than last season. Ipswich, Southampton and Leicester only won five home games between them while the new boys are already at four wins combined from just five matches.

Burnley at Turf Moor can make this scrappy and fiddly for Liverpool. Scott Parker’s team are unbeaten in their last 24 home league games and although that run is likely to end here, there will be positive vibes with the players likely to feed off the fact they’re very used to winning games in front of their own supporters.

Despite Liverpool’s perfect start results-wise, it has been clear they’ve struggled to find their flow and that stodge may just continue for another week due to the international break limiting time on the training pitch for Arne Slot. The Reds beat Leicester, Wolves and Southampton twice across all competitions by a one-goal margin last season on the road. It’s 11/4 with Sky Bet to happen again at Turf Moor.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1

Manchester City vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports

The Premier League might be back on your screen, and you’re ready to go goals galore with your punting after sitting through England vs Andorra for the 32,000th time but the trends suggest this is a time in the calendar where goals drop like a stone.

Players have been flying halfway across the globe and managers have had barely a day or two with their full squads.

The result? Slower starts, lower intensity, fewer chances.

Across the last two seasons, this matchday immediately after the international break, the average goals per game sits at a lowly 2.35 which is way down on the overall average of 3.1 per game during those two seasons.

Matches can be cagey and this one fits the bill where the market is overplaying the chances of goals. That makes the under 2.5 line at 13/8 with Sky Bet a nice edge to attack in a fixture which has only averaged 2.6 goals per game across the last 10.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (13/8 with Sky Bet)

Jones Knows’ Best Bet:

• 1pt double on: Over 2.5 goals in Everton vs Aston Villa and under 2.5 goals in Man City vs Man Utd (4/1 with Sky Bet)