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Eric Williams
NFL Reporter
It’s early, but Justin Herbert has entered the MVP race — but will he be here to stay?
Herbert played his best football when the game was on the line in the Los Angeles Chargers’ 27-21 win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1. That had been an issue in years past, but he completed all nine of his passes in the fourth quarter for 91 yards and a touchdown. That was much different from the previous fourth quarter we saw Herbert play, in which he completed 4 of 8 passes for 124 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions in a disappointing playoff loss to the Houston Texans.
But Herbert made big plays before the fourth quarter of the Chargers’ win over the Chiefs, too. Jim Harbaugh, who has been effusive in his praise for Herbert all offseason, gave the quarterback props for taking a big hit on a sack by Chiefs linebacker Drue Tranquill midway through the third quarter before delivering a strike to Quentin Johnston on the very next play that led to a first-down conversion.
“It was a huge hit on Justin,” Harbaugh told reporters. “The kind of hit that would have killed a lesser man. That’s how big that hit was. Let’s be honest about that. And then our guy, Justin Herbert, gets right back in the huddle. … I’ve been telling people Justin’s great, and that’s exhibit whatever it is now. It’s just incredible the kind of player he is.”
Herbert wound up having one of his best games as a pro, finishing 24 of 34 for 318 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions for a 131.7 passer rating. He also ran seven times for 38 yards, including a 19-yard scramble on third-and-14 late in the game to close out the victory.
There are some pieces in place to allow Herbert to continue to play well as the season goes on. He played effectively because of solid pass protection, with the offensive line allowing just eight pressures on 41 pass plays, per Pro Football Focus. Joe Alt, who slid over to left tackle in the wake of Rashawn Slater’s season-ending injury, allowed zero pressures, according to Next Gen Stats.
Along with that, Herbert benefited from better playmakers at his disposal as Harbaugh has tried to raise the talent level around his strong-armed quarterback, including Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston at receiver, along with rookie Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris leading the running game.
As Mike Sando of The Athletic noted, the run-oriented Harbaugh trusted Herbert to throw more in the offense against Kansas City — a trend to watch for the rest of the season.
Still, how well Herbert plays at the end of games this season will be one of the determining factors of how his team performs this season. For now, Herbert’s stellar play against the Chiefs has vaulted him into the MVP conversation. According to DraftKings, Herbert was one of the biggest movers, improving from +2000 in Week 1 to +1200 this week as he seeks to become the first Chargers player since LaDainian Tomlinson to win the MVP award since 2006.
Last year’s MVP, Josh Allen, moved to the current favorite at +350 after the Buffalo Bills’ comeback win over the Baltimore Ravens, followed by Lamar Jackson (+475) and Joe Burrow (+750).
Here’s my top five in MVP Watch for Week 2.
In his last five regular-season games, Allen has led Buffalo’s offense to 39 points a contest, with 18 touchdowns and just one interception and a 106.1 passer rating over that period.
Josh Allen helped the Bills come back from a 15-point deficit against the Ravens in Week 1. (Photo by Bryan Bennett/Getty Images)
Allen might have a chance to improve those numbers in Week 2. The Bills take on a New York Jets defense that gave up 34 points and forced no turnovers in a Week 1 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Per Next Gen Stats, Allen averaged a 2.98-second time to throw against the Ravens last week. And he completed six of seven passes for 78 yards and a touchdown on throws outside the pocket, while also finding the end zone on a scramble near the goal line.
Odds to win MVP: +320
Herbert joined elite company in another statistic last week with his 318-yard passing performance. Through six seasons, Herbert has topped 300 passing yards in 28 games — good for the fourth most by a player in his first six seasons. Only Patrick Mahomes (41), Dan Marino (32) and Kurt Warner (30) have more over that period.
Week 1 also marked Herbert’s 14th career game with three passing touchdowns and zero interceptions — the third most by a player through their first 80 games played.
Odds to win MVP: +1200
Jackson led the league with a 144.4 passer rating in Week 1. He also topped all signal callers with 11 yards per pass attempt and 70 rushing yards.
Per Next Gen Stats, Jackson (6.3) and Baltimore running back Derrick Henry (6.1) are the only players to average at least six yards per carry on designed runs since the start of the 2024 season. Jackson faces his former teammate Joe Flacco on Sunday with the Ravens hosting the Cleveland Browns.
Odds to win MVP: +370
It doesn’t look like there will be a sophomore slump for Daniels, who threw for 233 yards and a touchdown, while also running for 68 yards in the Commanders’ Week 1 win over the New York Giants. However, Daniels and Washington, with the oldest roster in the league, will face a tough test on the road against the Green Bay Packers and the youngest roster in the league.
Jayden Daniels got off to a strong start in Week 1. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
Daniels had a 108.2 passer rating in eight road games during his rookie season, finishing with a 5-3 record.
Odds to win MVP: +1000
The electric playmaker posted 142 total yards in Week 1, but didn’t get into the end zone. That should change this weekend against the New Orleans Saints. More importantly, McCaffrey looked healthy. And with Brock Purdy and George Kittle out due to injuries, San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan will have to rely on McCaffrey to carry the offense.
San Francisco also plays on the road against New Orleans, with an offense that could struggle to match scores. McCaffrey could be in line for another big day this weekend.
Odds to win MVP: +15000
Honorable mention: Derrick Henry, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts. Aaron Rodgers, Puka Nacua.
Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on X at @eric_d_williams.
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